Two industry-backed studies have produced dramatically different estimates of Europe’s illegal online gambling market, exposing the difficulty of measuring activity that operates outside regulated reporting systems.
Research commissioned by Euromat valued the illegal market at €12bn (US$13.94bn) in net revenue during 2025. The figure was three times its estimated size in 2019 and represented approximately 25% of Europe’s online gambling sector.
Regulus Partners and digital research consultancy Helios analysed web traffic, digital marketing activity and regulatory developments across 28 markets. These comprised 25 EU member states, excluding Malta and Luxembourg, together with the UK, Serbia and Montenegro.
The findings contrast sharply with research presented by the European Casino Association in July. Its study estimated that illegal operators generated €91.6bn in gross gaming revenue across the EU27 during 2025, an increase of 14% from €80.6bn in 2024.
The difference between the two estimates is €79.6bn, despite the Euromat research covering the UK and two additional European markets.
The studies were produced by different research providers and do not use identical geographical coverage or terminology. Euromat refers to net revenue, while the ECA describes its figure as gross gaming revenue. Publicly available summaries do not provide sufficient detail to reconcile a difference of this size.
Euromat’s research found illegal activity in every market examined, with unlicensed operators accounting for as much as 80% of online gambling in some jurisdictions. France was identified as Europe’s largest illegal market.
The 25 biggest unlicensed operators generated approximately 64% of relevant web traffic, according to the study. Cryptocurrency use and affiliate marketing were identified as important sources of growth.
Researchers associated higher illegal-market activity with state monopolies, product restrictions, taxation and advertising controls. Markets cited included Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.
Filip Jelavić, owner and project lead at Helios, said policies creating limited choice, price distortion and inconvenience for consumers could encourage migration towards unlicensed operators.
Jason Frost, president of Euromat, said: “The illegal black market is a major concern for everybody who recognises the importance of a progressive and fairly regulated leisure and entertainment economy.”
Frost said unlicensed operators could offer higher returns because they avoided the duties, taxes and compliance costs carried by regulated businesses. He added that the absence of self-exclusion measures left vulnerable players at greater risk.
Euromat represents Europe’s land-based gaming and amusement sector, while the ECA represents licensed casino operators. Both organisations have a commercial and regulatory interest in demonstrating the scale of competition from unlicensed businesses.
The gulf between their estimates shows that black-market figures require greater transparency over definitions, datasets and calculation methods before they can provide a reliable basis for regulation or tax policy.
