Brazil’s regulated gambling sector has moved to defend its position after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva renewed calls to consider a nationwide ban on online betting and gaming.
The IBJR said prohibition would fail to address underlying demand and instead accelerate the growth of illegal operators, undermining both consumer protection and public finances.
Lula has raised the possibility of a ban in recent weeks, while acknowledging that any such move would require approval from Congress. His comments reflect growing political pressure linked to concerns over household finances and the social impact of gambling.
The IBJR accepts that public concern is rising but argues that regulation, not restriction, offers the most effective response. In its view, dismantling the licensed market would push activity further underground, where oversight is limited and safeguards do not apply.
Data cited by the institute points to a significant existing black market. Research suggests that around 51 percent of betting activity in Brazil already takes place outside the regulated system, equating to approximately R$40bn annually. The associated loss to public finances is estimated at R$10.8bn.
Against that backdrop, the IBJR positions the regulated framework as a mechanism for containment. Licensed operators under the .bet.br regime are required to implement identity verification, including facial recognition, alongside player protection tools such as deposit limits, time controls and self exclusion measures.
The institute also challenges the narrative around household financial impact. Studies indicate gambling accounts for between 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent of total consumer spending, while broader indebtedness is more closely linked to credit card use. Within the regulated system, credit card and cryptocurrency payments are prohibited, a restriction designed to limit risk exposure.
Fiscal contribution remains central to the argument. The regulated sector generated R$9.95bn in tax revenue in 2025, with additional allocations directed toward sport, tourism, public safety and education. Licensing fees have also contributed significantly, with operators paying R$30m for five year approvals, generating approximately R$2.5bn in government income.
However, the IBJR warns that the balance is fragile. The effective tax burden is expected to rise to 32.8 percent of gross gaming revenue in 2026 and could reach 42 percent by 2033. At those levels, the risk of channelisation reversing becomes more pronounced.
The organisation estimates that industry investment has already reached R$7.5bn, with a broader economic impact exceeding R$28bn and employment supporting more than 15,000 jobs.
The debate now moves into a more defined political phase. The IBJR has confirmed it will continue engagement with both the executive and Congress, framing regulation as essential to maintaining control of the market.
The underlying message is consistent with other emerging markets. Demand does not disappear. The question is whether it sits within a regulated system or beyond it.
