Gibraltar is seeking to position itself as an early regulated hub for prediction markets, as international debate intensifies over whether event-based trading platforms should be treated as gambling products, financial instruments or a separate category.
Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade & Industry, wants Gibraltar to prioritise quality over volume when licensing prediction market operators, saying: “We don’t believe in issuing licences and making up numbers by allowing just anyone to come to Gibraltar and be licenced in Gibraltar.”
Feetham argues that Gibraltar’s established gambling ecosystem, tax position and improved international compliance status make it well placed to attract operators in the emerging sector.
The jurisdiction’s renewed push comes after its Gambling Act 2025 came into force last month. Existing licensees must reapply by October and demonstrate compliance with stricter rules covering areas including operations, marketing, anti-money laundering and affiliate relationships.
Gibraltar has also worked to strengthen its international regulatory standing. The Financial Action Task Force removed Gibraltar from its grey list in 2024, while Feetham led efforts to secure its removal from the European Union grey list in 2025.
Gibraltar’s strategy is significant because it moves in the opposite direction to other regulators that are blocking or challenging prediction markets. Gibraltar is attempting to create a licensing pathway for selected operators.
A Gibraltar licence does not guarantee legal access to every European country, particularly after Brexit. However, it’s regulatory reputation gives companies credibility and may support access or future licensing in other jurisdictions.
For Gibraltar, the calculation is clear. The territory already relies heavily on gambling as a contributor to tax revenue and employment. Prediction markets could offer another regulated growth vertical if the sector matures and gains wider legal recognition.
The risk is equally clear. The category sits at the centre of a live international dispute over sports betting, consumer protection and regulatory classification. Gibraltar’s opportunity will depend on whether it can build a credible framework without becoming a permissive shortcut for operators seeking lighter oversight.
