Asian casino markets are entering a more mature investment phase, with operators increasingly likely to be judged on dividends and earnings stability rather than high growth, according to Morgan Stanley.
Speaking at G2E Asia in Macau, Praveen Choudhary, Managing Director and Head of Asian Gaming at Morgan Stanley, said the region’s casino sector was showing clear signs of recovery, but with a different profitability profile to the pre pandemic period.
Choudhary said several Asian gaming markets were moving beyond their fastest growth phase, while others had yet to begin operating at scale. The result, he said, was a more uneven regional outlook in which investors should look more closely at cash generation and capital returns.
Macau remains central to this shift. The market’s mass gaming revenue has recovered to 2019 levels, but operator margins remain under pressure as costs rise and the city adapts to a changed operating model following the reduction of the traditional VIP junket sector.
Choudhary said Macau’s revenue recovery is clear but warned that profitability has not followed the same trajectory. He noted that margins had continued to decline even as revenue improved, changing the investment case for the city’s concessionaires.
The VIP segment has also shown signs of renewed activity, although Choudhary said the market is unlikely to return to the high roller model that defined Macau before the pandemic and the regulatory crackdown on junkets. He said Macau is becoming a more stable and mature market, with dividend potential likely to become a more important part of its appeal to investors.
Singapore was identified as the region’s strongest performer. Choudhary said mass market revenue in the city state had reached 187% of 2019 levels, driven less by tourism volumes than by wealth accumulation and the presence of high-net-worth individuals living in Singapore.
The city state’s two integrated resorts have benefited from this shift, with local and resident wealth helping to create a more resilient premium customer base. Singapore’s tightly-controlled casino model, limited licences and strong luxury positioning continue to support its performance.
The Philippines presents a more mixed picture. While the market recorded GGR of PHP396.14bn in 2025, up 6.39% YoY, growth was led largely by online and electronic gaming. Land-based casino revenues have faced pressure from weaker Chinese and South Korean visitation.
Japan remains a longer-term opportunity, although Choudhary expressed caution over the country’s opening timeline. MGM Resorts International and Orix are developing Japan’s first integrated resort in Osaka, but the project is not expected to transform the regional market in the short-term.
The UAE was also cited as a market with significant potential because of its luxury positioning and limited competition. Wynn Resorts is developing Wynn Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah, although construction and opening timelines remain subject to regional and operational risks.
Choudhary’s comments point to a changing investment narrative for Asian gaming. Rather than a uniform rebound story, the region is becoming a more selective market, with Singapore offering premium growth, Macau moving towards stability and dividends and emerging jurisdictions such as Japan and the UAE remaining longer term strategic plays.
Image Credit: GGR Asia
