The FIFA World Cup generated $17.9bn in reported trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, underlining the speed at which prediction markets are moving into territory traditionally dominated by licensed sportsbooks.
The combined figure covers contracts linked to the tournament from its opening match on June 11th through July 18th, according to data compiled by Dune Analytics.
Trading connected with the Final between Spain and Argentina reached $5.69bn across the two platforms before the match was completed, making it one of the largest individual sporting events recorded by the sector.
The figures are not directly comparable with conventional sportsbook handle. Prediction market contracts can be bought and sold several times before settlement, with each transaction contributing to reported trading volume. The total therefore measures the notional value of trading activity rather than the amount of new money staked by customers. A single contract may change hands repeatedly as its price moves in response to developments before and during a match.
Kalshi and Polymarket also surpassed $50bn in combined trading during June, the first time the platforms had crossed that level in a single month. World Cup contracts accounted for a significant share of the increase, with markets covering match results, tournament progression, individual awards and other outcomes linked to the competition.
Polymarket said its World Cup markets generated more than $4.4bn in trading volume, demonstrating the scale of customer interest beyond the final alone.
The rapid growth has intensified a regulatory dispute over whether sports event contracts are financial instruments or an alternative form of sports betting. State regulators and gambling industry groups argue that the products perform the same basic function as wagers and should be subject to state licensing, taxation and responsible gambling requirements.
Prediction market operators maintain that customers are trading federally regulated contracts rather than betting against a bookmaker.
The World Cup has exposed the commercial consequences of this distinction. Prediction markets were able to build substantial sports trading volumes while operating outside much of the state-based licensing structure that governs US sportsbooks.
The tournament also demonstrated the challenge of comparing the two sectors. Sportsbook handle records the amount staked by customers, while prediction market volume can count the same underlying position more than once as it is traded between participants.
Despite this difference, the scale of World Cup activity shows that prediction markets are becoming a meaningful competitor for sports betting customers, particularly around high-profile events.
For regulated operators, the concern is not simply the $17.9bn in reported trading. It is that Kalshi and Polymarket are establishing sport as a central customer acquisition product while operating under a different regulatory and tax framework.
The World Cup has strengthened the commercial position of prediction markets. It has also increased pressure on courts, lawmakers and regulators to decide whether sports event contracts can continue to sit outside the established US sports betting system.
