Prediction market operator Kalshi is reportedly in discussions to raise capital at an approximately US$40bn valuation.
Originally reported by the Financial Times, this news has garnered attention from the crypto, fintech and market structure sectors. The funding could finalise as early as Q3 2026, though Kalshi has not officially confirmed the discussions.
The $40bn valuation has captured interest due to its rapid escalation from previous figures. In October 2025, just eight months ago, Kalshi’s valuation was around $5bn. By May this year, it had surged to $22bn following a $1bn funding round with investors including Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Morgan Stanley. The current discussions reflect an 82% increase within a matter of weeks.
Several factors contribute to this heightened investor enthusiasm. Kalshi has established itself as the dominant regulated prediction market venue in the US. The company has diversified its offerings beyond elections to include sports, economic data, weather and politics. Additionally, its trading volume has dramatically increased over the past year.
Kalshi’s regulatory positioning also plays a key role. Unlike crypto-native competitor Polymarket, Kalshi operates as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange in the US. This regulatory status is seen as a competitive advantage, especially if prediction markets gain mainstream acceptance as financial products.
There is also speculation about a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO), possibly in 2027 or later. High-growth fintech firms often receive premium valuations when an IPO is anticipated.
However, not all investors are convinced. Kalshi faces legal challenges with several US states regarding whether some contracts resemble gambling products. A significant portion of its activity is tied to sports-related contracts, making legal outcomes crucial for future growth.
Additionally, a $40bn valuation would require investors to believe prediction markets can evolve into a major asset class, similar to large exchanges or fintech platforms.
If Kalshi’s fundraising finalizes at the reported level, it would underscore a shift in investor perception, viewing prediction markets as mainstream financial infrastructure rather than niche betting products. This valuation leap from $5bn in late 2025 to $40bn in 2026 would count among the most rapid increases in fintech, placing Kalshi in a similar valuation league as major exchange and fintech firms.
