The 2026 FIFA World Cup has reshaped the sports betting landscape, with prediction markets eclipsing traditional sportsbooks. Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as formidable competitors, capturing a significant share of the betting volume during the tournament.
Kalshi reported a staggering $31bn in total notional trading volume in June, a 70% increase from the previous month. Sports contracts accounted for 85% of this trading, with World Cup-specific volume reaching $22.42bn.
Polymarket set a monthly record with $10.8bn in trading volume on its international exchange, and its regulated US platform recorded $3.5bn, nearly doubling May’s total.
In contrast, US legal sportsbooks were projected to handle between $2.8bn and $4.3bn across the tournament’s 104 matches.
Kalshi’s World Cup-specific markets alone generated $7.4bn in June, before the group stages had even concluded. As an official prediction market partner with FIFA, Kalshi secured co-branding rights and a media distribution deal with Fox Sports, enhancing its visibility.
App data from Apptopia revealed a 36% increase in Kalshi’s daily active users by June 30th, compared with a 36% decrease for DraftKings, a 41% drop for FanDuel and a 32% decline for both BetMGM and Caesars. While traditional sportsbooks experienced early spikes, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket saw steady growth, capturing 78.5% of betting app installs across the six major platforms tracked by Apptopia.
The emergence of prediction markets has also brought surprising demographic changes. Kalshi’s female user base has grown by 106% during the tournament, surpassing the 54% growth rate among male users. By late June, 33.3% of Kalshi’s user base was female, compared to 22-23% for DraftKings and FanDuel. Kalshi attracted users new to betting, with some growth linked to the reality TV show Love Island, alongside the World Cup.
A YouGov BrandIndex Report highlighted Kalshi as the only prediction market operator gaining significant consumer momentum during the World Cup, alongside brands like Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Visa, and outpacing major tournament broadcaster Fox.
The launch of Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International, further underscores the shift. Debuting in June with $2bn in notional volume, Rothera captured a 7% share of the US prediction market, doubling Kalshi’s pre-Super Bowl processing volume.
Despite record numbers, traditional sportsbooks are no longer the sole focus. Christian Cipollini of BetMGM noted: “This World Cup has been record-type handle stuff for us this whole time,” and DraftKings reported handle at approximately five times its 2022 levels.
With 39 states now having legal mobile sports betting, the tournament exceeded expectations, with the US team’s performance driving unprecedented interest.
Globally, World Cup wagering is projected to surpass $50bn. Prediction markets, once criticised for thin liquidity, now boast credible prices and substantial volume. Apptopia found that sportsbook users increasingly sampled Kalshi, while fewer Kalshi users opened sportsbook apps, challenging the notion that prediction markets feed into traditional sports betting.
